This page is designed to have a single repository for all of the public papers that we have done. These are applications of advanced statistical applications to
Player Evaluation:
Total Hockey Rating (THoR) Adjusted Net Expected Goals model with Jim Curro:
Original Paper (2nd place Research Paper Competition at 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference),
Link to THoR main page with updates from original model and discussion
Adjusted Save Percentage:
Defense Independent Goalie Rating (DIGR): Original Paper (Research Paper Competition Finalist at 2011 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference)
NHL Shootout
Statistical Analysis of Shootout: Shootout is a Crapshoot poster (from 2010 NCCORS conference), Impact of Going First in Shootout (with Zach Nelson)
Updated Statistical Analysis of the Shootout with Mike Lopez Predicting Coin Flips Journal of Sport Sciences (2016).
Faceoffs
Analysis of value of a faceoff & adjusted faceoff win percentage with Tom Pasquali: Analysis of NHL Faceoffs
NHL Player Entry Draft
Analysis of value of a particular entry draft selection including a draft value pick chart (2011) Draft Value Pick Chart: (NOTE: There is a newer (2016) version of this below)
Estimating the Return on Investment for National Hockey League (NHL) Team Scouting relative to Central Scouting: You Can Beat the Market
Draft by Numbers: Using Data and Analytics to Improve National Hockey League (NHL) Player Selection Draft By Numbers (Poster at 2016 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference)
2016 Version of the Draft Pick Value Chart
Text Mining of Scouting Reports as a Novel Data Source for Improving NHL Draft Analytics with Timo Seppa and Mike Rovito (2017)
Shiny App created with Gordon White to visualize data from the NHL Player Entry Draft NHL Draft Pick Trajectory Plots
Rink Adjustments
An analysis of the recording of events in the NHL’s Real Time Scoring System with Brian Macdonald Accounting for Rink Effects in the National Hockey League’s Real Time Scoring System:
Analysis of NHL Injury Rates
An analysis of NHL injury probabilities and man games lost using game event data with Jeremy Sylvain The Probability and Severity of Man Games Lost Due to Injury in an NHL Season
Referee Analytics
A look at comparing rates of penalties called when referees and linesman are on the ice with Lauren Brozowski. NHL Referee Analytics (Poster Finalist at 2012 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference)
Hockey Attendance
Short article for Winthrop Intelligence with Zach Nelson on things that impact NCAA Men’s Division I college hockey attendance Just Win, Ehh
Team Scoring Systems
Long version of article with Chris Wells that appeared in The Hockey News called What’s Your Point?